On Wind Chill…

The climatology of wind chill in the PNR is investigated in order to improve the effectiveness of the wind chill warning bulletin.  We compiled event and bulletin statistics for 366 sites utilizing several differing sets of warning criteria, including a new proposal to eliminate all but the minimum equivalent temperature requirement.

Under current criteria, the PNR experiences an average of 736 events per year with a mean duration of 7.4 hours and standard deviation of 2.2 hours.  Data variability is large, with 12% of sites having never logged a single event while numerous Arctic sites see an average of 15 events per year.  Increasing the minimum required wind speed to 20 km/h yielded a 38% reduction in yearly events, while independently increasing the minimum time duration to 6 hours yielded a 46% reduction; the elimination of both requirements entirely dramatically increased the event count by 334%.

Individual site data were then collated into regions and a simple 24-hour forecast and reassessment cycle was used to estimate the production of new bulletins.  Bulletin statistics specific to Alberta nad the southern Prairies showed a similar result.  Under current criteria, 44 original WWCN bulletins must be issued for 187 regions on average each year.  The increase to 20 km/h showed a reduction to 31 bulletins (~30%) and 108 regions (~42%), while the increase to 6 hours gave a reduction to 33 bulletins (~25%) and 130 regions (~30%).  The elimination of wind and duration again showed a large increase to 95 bulletins (+116%) and 487 regions (+160%).  However, objectively selecting the best particular set of criteria still proved difficult; wind speed is the limiting factor, as a minimum of 70% of the variance of any wind chill calculation was found to result form a calculated 2 knot standard deviation in the wind speed.  The wind chill parameter itself can thus only be determined to within 2 equivalent degrees over a 95% confidence interval.

We conclude that while any increase in minimum wind speed and duration produces a reduction in both events and warning bulletins, a more subjective analysis still needs to be investigated to find a better balance between forecaster workload and value to the general public.

A short summary of the work that Jason and I have done so far on wind chill in the PNR region.  To be presented at this year’s change of season workshop.

2 November Permalink Comments

My First Special Weather Statement

So I got the opportunity to put out my very first special weather statement the other day.  These are used to notify the public of the potential for severe weather when there’s some significant uncertainty in the weather.  They explain a little about what’s going on, and what the current expectations of the forecaster are, and what it is that could be different than the current thinking.  After the fact, it turns out that my SWS was pretty much bang on, which makes me smile.

Special Weather Statement issued for…

City of Winnipeg
Steinback - St. Adolphe - Dominion City - Vita - Richer
Dugald - Beausejour - Grand Beach
Morden - Winkler - Altona - Emerson - Morris
Bissett - Nopiming Provincial Park - Pine Falls
Whiteshell - Lac du Bonnet - Pinawa
Sprague - Northwest Angle Provincial Forest

Heavy rainfall is possible for the southern Red River Valley and southeast Mantioba through this evening and Saturday.  Locally severe thunderstorms may produce in excess of 50 mm this afternoon and this evening.  Convection will give way to an intense low pressure system that will move across southern Manitoba overnight and Saturday brining widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms.  Total rainfall accumulations are uncertain, but currently a further 30-60 mm of rain through Saturday seems most likely.  However, the potential exists that some areas may see the possibility of recieveing in excess of 90 mm.  As more information becomes available about the track and the intensity of the incoming low pressure sysstem rainfall accumulations in the local forecasts will be updated.

END

29 June Permalink Comments

Well That Was The Worst Post-Night Shift Sleep

Ugh.  I got home from work by 8 AM yesterday, and promptly went to bed.  I was able to sleep until 10 AM and that’s it.  I was so tired.  I was exhausted.  I stumbled through the day in a bit of a stupor.  I felt not very good.

I got a bunch of sleep last night, but I think I need another night of a lot of sleep to get back to where my eyeballs don’t hurt.  But on the bright side, I get to hang out in Assiniboia Park tonight.  Yay!

11 June Permalink Comments

What Do YOU Think About Windchill (or Staring at Excel for Hours)

In the “This is good news” category:

I’ve finally been given a project at work.  This past winter, our office issued something like 850 windchill warnings.  This would seem to indicate that it might not exactly be a rare event.  Currently, our windchill warning criteria for the Southern Prairies is:

A windchill of -40°C or colder with a wind 15km/h or greater.

For the Northern Prairies it varies between -40°C and -50°C with the same wind speed.  In the Arctic, one requires a windchill of -55° to receive a warning.

But!  850 in a winter.  Too many.  So a coworker and I will be compiling windchill statistics for many, many places covering pretty much as much data as we can get our hands on (which for most places is 50 years or so) to see if windchill warning-level events are actually as common as they seem or if this winter was a fluke.  In the end, this could result in us coming up with some recommendations to improve the warning criteria, which would be pretty cool!

But I’m just happy to finally have a project!

22 May Permalink Comments

Worst Forecast Ever

So I have to confess: last night I made the single-worst forecast I’ve ever made.

Kimmirut is always a tricky spot with strong systems moving up from the south.  They always have very strong low-level jets associated with them from the east.  Kimmirut is in a slight valley, with higher terrain to their east that often prevents strong winds from reaching the townsite, instead deflecting them above the town.  They are far, far more susceptible to strong northeast winds than they are to easterly winds.

Yesterday, those “really strong” easterly winds managed to reach the surface, and Kimmirut spent most of the day with winds of 60km/h gusting to 90km/h.  When I went to work last night, things were beginning to ease up a little.

I did a thorough analysis of both the real data available to me and several different models to help me make my forecast for them for today.  All the models were in agreement that there would be maybe, maybe up to 5cm of snow and that the winds should resurface during the day again.  So, my forecast for them for today said periods of snow, 2-4cm, with winds 40km/h gusting to 60km/h except gusting to 80km/h at times.

So what happened?

15:00 Light Snow calm 99.71

14:00 Light Snow 12N 99.61

13:00 Heavy Snow 12N 99.60

12:00 Heavy Snow 12N 99.50.

11:00 Heavy Snow 12NNE 99.50

10:00 Heavy Snow 13N 99.50

9:00 Heavy Snow 12NNE 99.50

8:00 Snow 14N 99.50

7:00 Light Snow 13NNE 99.52

4 hours of heavy, heavy snow.  Over 30cm fell.  Oh, and the winds were calm all day.

Sometimes, when it comes to the weather, you just can’t win.

13 March Permalink Comments

another freezing rain night

Tonight I go to face off against my mortal enemy: freezing precipitation.  Yes, it’s true.  That phrasing that I hate so much is in the public forecast: “Temperature rising to [anything close to zero] by morning.”  On the bright side it should give me lots to do and make the night go by quicker.  Oh, and there’s also that whole blizzard thing up in Clyde River.

I think, despite the challenges, tonight will be a night where I like my job.  Time to head off to work, make myself a pot of coffee and sit down and start drawing colorful lines.  Everyone who is normal, enjoy your sleeps.

1 December Permalink Comments

still alive…

I am still alive; I guess I just haven’t had too much to say lately.

Work was incredibly boring through the last rotation, there was practically nothing going on at all the whole time save for a blizzard in Hall Beach one night.  Other than that it was boooring.  I did discover that the iPod Touch has a pretty good battery for playing movies!  On my second night shift I watched Serenity, the newest episode of The 1Up Show, and two episodes of 30 Rock and I still had over half the battery left.  Technology.

The only real different thing in life is that I somehow managed to get myself a girlfriend.  This is really, really not something I was expecting.  There’s a lot of reasons and layers to that declaration, so lets just say that I really, truly didn’t expect it.  But God works in odd ways, and after a lot of prayer I felt it was the right direction to take things.

It wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever if my actions relating to all that have upset some people.  I sort of expect it to.  Somebody said to me the other day that I’m “might not be as high and mighty as I think.”  Other than being a little hurtful to hear, because I’m honestly not one to think like that, I understood what she was getting at.  There are people who probably have a low opinion of me right now.  There are people I have hurt.  I want these people to know that I’m sorry. There’s not an excuse for what happened (well there is, but it’s not a very good one), and I hope that sometime we can find a way to put this behind us.  I have come to terms with what has happened.  I have struggled with it, I have shed tears over it, and ultimately, I have given it to God so that He might do with it whatever it is He thinks is best.  But I still feel like I wish there was something I could do to mend things.

Other than that hiccup, I’m very happy with life right now.  Despite being boring at times, my job is great.  Trish is a very unexpected development, but the relationship is so…I don’t know the word for it.  Wholesome’s a pretty bad adjective to use for a relationship, but it’s how it feels.  I’m very happy when I spend time with her.

It’s a beautiful morning, however, and I’m going to go make myself a latte, put on a thick sweater and go stand on my balcony, crisp air on my face and in my lungs, and watch the city wake from it’s slumber.

21 October Permalink Comments

Today I Learned That…

The end of a night shift is even harder when you don’t see the sun before you get home…

Especially when the last time you did one, the sun was shining in your eyes by 6:30 in the morning.

*sigh*  I have such a love/hate relationship with my job.  It’s a fine balance some days.

28 September Permalink Comments

not very keen

on heading out this door to another day of project shift…

18 September Permalink Comments

All Quiet

Life putters along, with not too much big happening.  I’ve hit a groove.  Work is good, friends are good, music is good.  Scratch that, music is very good.  I’m making huge headway in that department, which is making me extremely happy about life in general.

That’s about it!  FarmFest tomorrow, Church on Sunday, and then back to work for some project shifts and an operational shift.  Life is good!

12 September Permalink Comments

rainy days means time to post

Well, it’s a grey rainy day today.  Which is a nice break from the grey, hot and humid day yesterday.  But that also means I have time to post.  This will probably be a little bit longer since I’ve been up to a lot over the past bit.

Work lately has been really good.  I find I go through these…waves of caring.  I’ll really be passionate about the weather, go to work, and give it 110%.  I’ll do way more analyses than I need to do, and really just be keen abou the whole process.  After a couple weeks, I slide back to just doing my upper air analyses and comparing it to the model.  Which is not good.  If that’s all I do, a computer could have my job fairly quickly.  Why I go back and forth through these two states, I have no idea.  I know that when I do all the work I can, I enjoy the job more, forecasting is a lot easier, the shift goes faster, and it definitely reflects better to upper management when they come in and see a ridiculous amount of analysis done.  I’m working on taking the hard work attitude to work more often, but it’s definitely a challenge some days.

On that note, on Monday morning at 6AM, it was 4° in Edmonton and 22° here.  Suckers.

The apartment is still going well.  I still love my view and admire it almost every day.  There’s something je ne sais quoi about the inherent beauty of the flatness and big sky here.  Whatever it is, I feel it every day.  In other apartment news, my leaky dishwasher is fixed.  They just put a brand new one in.  And it is awesome.  I love having a dishwasher again :)

Music continues to grow into more of my life.  More and more of what I see and what I hear around me inspires some sort of music.  It’s frustrating at times, because my ambition far exceeds my actual skill.  I can think of several times in the past little while where I had to put my guitar down and walk away for a while because I just couldn’t make my fingers make it replicate what I heard in my head.  It’s one of the most frustrating feelings I’ve had, like there’s something wonderful caged away that I just can’t let out.  But, I’ve been playing a lot and I continue to get better.  Someday I’ll be able to free what’s stuck in my head.

In that vein, I’ve recently met someone who I’d say is probably as passionate, if not moreso, about music as I am.  And she happens to have a beautiful voice which we’ll put to good use in the first of many (I hope) songs we pen together.  I am not good at lyrics, but I find it interesting how somehow she can hear the same thing that I’m feeling when I create a song.  She can put it into words, which is very helpful.  That’s a new little project in life that I’m excited about.

In the next little while, I hope to be a little happier with how things are going.  I’m falling into a fairly regular work schedule, and with school firing up for a lot of people, schedules will become a litltle more regular.  This should let me get out and see people with a little more regularity and organization, which will be very, very good for me.  I also find myself more and more drawn to the community at St. Benedict’s Table, and hope to join them from time to time in exploring our faith and the world at large.

That’s about it for now.  In a little bit I plan on making some hot chocolate and curling up on the couch with a good book and reading as the storms pass through outside.  If I’m really lucky, we’ll get a good one and I’ll be able to do a little lightning photography; something that’s been horribly lacking in this city throughout the summer.

In parting, I’d like to share a revelation I’ve had as of late.  It’s a revelation in the sense that I’ve heard it before many many times, but it’s only lately I’ve been able to internalize it.  Life is what you make it. You can be happy, sad, angry, indifferent, detached, or whatever with respect to anything in life.  When I first found out I was moving to Winnipeg, I was really dejected.  I did not look forward to leaving my friends, family, and familiarity behind.  When I came here, I realized that I could be in Winnipeg for a while, and that it was something I had to face.  I couldn’t avoid the fact I wouldn’t be living at home.  So I struggled for a little bit.  I didn’t really know what to do.  But I decided that I should “make the best” of the situation.  I wanted to be happy.  So I opened myself up to opportunites that, had I not been dedicated at working towards being happy, I would not have batted an eye at.  I find myself now in a place I enjoy.  I am happy.  I’ve had blessings and opportunites arise that I could never have expected open up for me, and I am so thankful for it.  If you want to be happy, be happy.  Find things to be thankful for, no matter how big.  I guarentee you that life is a lot more enjoyable if it’s lived being happy.  It may be work, but don’t be afraid to go out there and make your life what you want it to be.

1 September Permalink Comments

The Thing I Don’t Like About Night Shifts Is…

That to prepare for them, I get up at my normal time, and try to have a 3-4 hour nap in the afternoon, usually from 1-5. I get sleepy around 1 anyways, regardless of the schedule of my life, so it usually works well. The only problem is that through the morning, I feel like I just have to “kill time” to get to nap time. I always feel like I’m wasting the day. But I guess that’s what you get when you switch between day shifts and night shifts.

26 July Permalink Comments